模型就是产品,评估就是需求文档:Mercor如何长成史上增长最快的公司

原标题If the Model Is the Product, the Eval Is the PRD: Inside Mercor's Rise

Mercor CEO Brendan Foody解释,为什么AI实验室几乎愿为专家写的评估付任何价钱,公司如何在16个月内从100万美元做到4亿美元年化,以及对工作和创业者意味着什么。

BFBrendan Foody嘉宾
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Brendan Foody认为,改进模型的主要瓶颈是衡量成功,所以实验室需要律师、银行家、工程师和编剧等专家写评分标准和校验器,供后训练和强化学习使用。Mercor起初是AI驱动的招聘市场,撞上这股需求后,16个月内从100万美元做到4亿美元年化收入,他称之为史上最快爬升。他还谈到弹性行业、通往超级智能的更长道路,以及支撑这次增长的文化和招聘教训。

  1. 1如果模型就是产品,评估就是产品需求文档一旦研究者有了评估集,强化学习就能往上爬;因此衡量成功,成了把工作流自动化的门槛。
  2. 2实验室要的不是传统数据供应商,而是能定义并衡量「什么叫好」的顶尖专业人士劳动市场。Mercor因此从100万美元做到4亿美元年化,只用了16个月。
  3. 3评估和强化学习环境本质上是同一种数据,只是用途不同:可以当基准和销售材料,也可以当后训练里的奖励信号。Karpathy认为两者主要是语义差别。
  4. 4押注弹性行业Foody建议把精力放在软件这类领域:人的生产力提高十倍,需求会跟着涨十倍甚至一百倍;要用AI工具,而不是抵制它们。
  5. 5前10%的专家贡献了大部分模型提升,识别并匹配他们是Mercor的核心优势。市场时薪中位数95美元,深度专长可到500美元。
  6. 6去找那个出奇好卖的客户Foody说硬推产品市场契合会失败;真正信号是市场在拉你,而且最有钱的买家愿为能力提升付任何价钱。
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01

评估既是新的需求文档,也是新的销售材料

Foody frames the opening tweet pinned on his profile, "we are entering the era of evals," with a simple analogy: if the model is the product, the eval is the product requirement document. Researchers run dozens of experiments that make small gains on an eval set, and reinforcement learning is now so effective that once an eval exists, they can climb it. He points to how quickly Olympiad math was saturated, and how quickly SWE-bench is being saturated, once labs focused on them.

For enterprises, he says the core job is to build a systematic test of how well AI automates their core value chain, whether that is an architecture firm's diagrams or any other deliverable. Measuring that is the prerequisite for applying AI across the business. Sarah Guo's remark that "evals equal your new marketing" fits too, because evals show researchers what to build and also demonstrate capabilities to customers.

He notes the shift away from academic evals like GPQA, Humanity's Last Exam and Olympiad math toward practical ones, such as automating how a software platform gets built or how an investment banking analysis gets done. Labs and application companies will increasingly use such evals to demonstrate what their models and products can do.

02

Mercor增长靠的是实验室真正缺的东西:能衡量模型的专家

Foody met his co-founders at 14 and started Mercor with them at 19, in January 2023. At first they hired people internationally and matched them with friends, automating resume review, interviews and hiring decisions with LLMs, and bootstrapped to a $1 million run rate before dropping out. After meeting OpenAI, they saw the human data market move away from crowdsourcing low- and mid-skilled writers toward sourcing and vetting experienced professionals, such as software engineers, investment bankers, doctors and lawyers.

From there Mercor worked with all of the top AI labs and grew from $1 million to a $400 million run rate in 16 months, which Foody calls the fastest ascent in history. He explains the demand: the labs' primary bottleneck is having some way of measuring success, both for evals and for verifiers that reward a model in RL environments. They need this in every domain where models are weak, and the wealthiest companies in the world will spend whatever it takes.

Concretely, a lawyer might write a rubric for redlining a contract, similar to a professor's grading rubric, so that a model's output can be scored on each key point it should catch. That rubric works as the benchmark for progress and as training data to reward the capability. Foody adds that Andrej Karpathy has noted the difference between evals and RL environments is mostly semantic, since both are a way to define what good looks like.

He describes the broader move from supervised fine-tuning data, where inputs map to outputs, and from RLHF, where humans pick the better sample, toward reinforcement learning from AI feedback. Humans define success criteria, such as a unit test in code or a rubric elsewhere, and the model is rewarded against them, which is more scalable and data-efficient. Rachitsky notes that an Anthropic co-founder described the same shift.

03

只要人还能做模型做不到的事,写评估的工作就不会停

On whether the work dries up, Foody rejects the camp that expects superintelligence within three years and no role for humans. He says models are extraordinary but still cannot reliably schedule time on a calendar, draft his emails or use basic tools. Every gap needs evals, whether for tool use or long-horizon reasoning, and in ten years someone will want evals for a model that builds a startup over 30 days.

Asked about a tweet he retweeted, that we were put on Earth to create RL training data for labs, Foody says researchers and executives at top labs think the entire economy may become an RL environment machine. He compares this with the industrial revolution, which created new classes of jobs. He says the last three years of AI narrative have been almost entirely about displacement, while few people discuss this new category of jobs.

He also expects businesses to split. Some enterprises, including well-known Fortune 500 names, are fearful and avoid evaluating their business because it would show their value chain being automated. Others lean in, asking what they could do with 10 or 100 times more capacity, and he thinks those will be the ones that succeed. He agrees with Rachitsky's paraphrase that AI will not replace you but people who are good with AI will.

04

选弹性领域,用工具而不是跟工具作对

When Rachitsky asks what young people should study, Foody points to categories with elastic demand, where making people ten times more productive means building ten or a hundred times as much. Software is his main example, and he says product managers who can now do much more are well positioned. Accounting, by contrast, has only so much demand, and he cites Marc Andreessen's point that software is the most elastic industry of all.

On skills, he says people who can leverage AI in their daily workflows will do best. Talking with teachers about assessing students, he compares the situation to the calculator: do not try to stop people using the tools, tell them to use them and see what they can do. Mercor's own interviews ask candidates to use ChatGPT, Claude Code, Cursor or any other tool to build a website and show what they can make in an hour.

Operations and consulting are other candidates with elastic demand, he suggests; imagine ten times as many consultants and how much more research and analysis would be possible. The winners, in his view, lean into a narrative of abundance, asking how to do much more, rather than fighting displacement.

05

全球劳动力市场里,真正拉开差距的是前10%的专家

Foody says labor markets feel wildly inefficient and fragmented because matching is done by hand: candidates apply to a dozen jobs, and companies consider a fraction of a percent of the available candidates. Automating matching at the cost of software could make a global, unified labor market. Rachitsky adds that AI-written applications are flooding hiring managers, who now need AI to filter. Foody says labs want a labor marketplace more than a data company, with project management and software layered on top.

Explaining how a model learns to read an x-ray, Foody says pre-training puts broad knowledge into the model, and post-training and RL teach reasoning about which pieces of knowledge are accurate and what to prioritize. Behind a good diagnosis there were radiologists who built the post-training set with rewards and penalties. Mercor has tens of thousands of people working at any time and hundreds of thousands overall.

He contrasts the older crowdsourcing companies, which used large volumes of low-skilled people, with the new model of fewer, higher-caliber people who scale once quality is proven. Traditional expert networks like AlphaSights focus on one-off calls, whereas this work means retaining people on longer projects, closer to Uber or DoorDash but with higher-skilled talent. Mercor even hired people from the Harvard Lampoon to help make models funnier, and screenwriters for creative work.

Turnaround is fast: a request for award-winning screenwriters can be filled within 24 hours. Out of 100 people, Foody says, the top 10% often drive most of the model's improvement, so identifying them gives a hard-to-copy advantage. The median pay rate is $95 an hour and can reach $500 an hour, versus about $30 an hour in typical crowdsourcing. Work is often part-time, though there are many 40-hour roles too.

06

盯领先指标,顺着市场的拉力走,把标准设高

Asked what made Mercor so successful, Foody lists leading indicators in fast-moving markets first: rather than competing in a stagnant legacy market, find new pockets of demand where the wealthiest customers will pay whatever it takes, and serve the flagship customers best. The second is customer obsession. For the last year and a half the company had nobody in sales and marketing, relying on word of mouth and putting all resources into product and customer experience.

He recounts how he found the opportunity. In August 2023 a customer introduced them to the xAI co-founders, who had them to the Tesla office within two days, though xAI was not yet ready for human data. Months later a crowdsourcing company used Mercor to hire over 1,000 people, and support tickets flooded in because those people were not being paid. That convinced them incumbents were complacent and that working directly with labs, treating experts with dignity and cutting out middlemen, was the opportunity, and they began in May of the following year.

His advice to founders is to be stubborn about your thesis but open about its form. He says he used to try to force product-market fit, but if the marginal customer is extremely hard to sell, you cannot build a huge business. Instead, find the customer who is surprisingly easy to sell to. Foody adds that the company stayed capital-efficient and lifetime profitable, raising its seed round from General Catalyst in September.

Mercor's values are a can-do attitude, high standards and intensity. Foody says he told Benchmark before its Series A, at a $1.5 million run rate, that they would reach $50 million by year-end, and they got there within two weeks of the target. They hire many former founders and brought in Sundeep Jain, formerly Uber's chief product and technology officer, as president. On the 6-9-9 culture, he says Mercor has never mandated hours, and the intensity comes from people who are bought in.

07

前十人慢慢招,之后加速,并预期通往超级智能的路还长

On high standards, Foody says the first 10 hires were chosen with great patience, including a second US employee who had been head of growth at Scale. That talent density shaped the rest of the organization. But he admits it was a double-edged sword: Mercor probably moved too slowly in scaling the team from about 10 to 100, and once demand clearly exceeds what you can handle, speed becomes the priority.

As CEO, he spends most time on hiring and with customers, plus unexpected people questions such as levels and comp bands. He credits early ventures, like selling Safeway donuts in middle school and moving his stand 50 feet off campus when the school objected, with teaching him that you can just do things. The name Mercor, he says, means marketplace in Latin, and the ambition is the marketplace for how everyone finds jobs.

On the future, Foody says evals are evergreen: as long as people want to improve models, experts will be needed to create evals and post-training data, even if training methods change. He agrees that scaling is slowing and thinks superintelligence in three years is unlikely. In his view, a majority of knowledge work tasks will be automated within ten years, but progress will come from data-efficient post-training sets, not 10 times more pre-training data. He also thinks superintelligence fearmongering is overrated, though a small chance of doom justifies care.

Rachitsky and Foody close on abundance in medicine, legal advice and education. Foody's parting message is to take the initiative and build, because AI makes building easier and initiative is the largest barrier to innovation. He also mentions being dyslexic, which he says makes email hard but helps him see market shifts, and which has taught him to manage for strengths rather than weaknesses. Mercor is hiring strategic project leads, software engineers and researchers.

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