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1:26:46EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年10月8日播客There Likely Is a Level of Intelligence We Shouldn't Go Past主持 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz brings notes from The Curve, a chip startup whose token bill beat payroll, and a software industry that now performance-reviews people for Claude slop.企业与战略安全与治理AGI Timelines+3
2:13:27EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年9月29日播客He Wrote a Book to Stop the AI Race — Then Almost Got Addicted to Claude主持 Nathan LabenzJournalist Garrison Lovely takes the AGI labs at their word, rejects the bubble story, and argues for freezing the frontier until the public actually consents.安全安全与治理AI Strategy+3
3:10:49EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年4月11日播客Crunch Time: Ajeya Cotra's Playbook for the Months Before Superintelligence主持 Nathan LabenzA conversation on recursive self-improvement, public warning systems, and using each generation of AI to align and control the next.安全安全与治理AGI Timelines+3
1:44:15EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年4月1日播客Nathan Labenz's p(doom) Is 10 to 90 Percent. He Is More Optimistic Anyway主持 Nathan LabenzFive years ago, expecting AGI by 2035 made you an extremist. On The Intelligence Horizon, the Cognitive Revolution host explains why the same forecast now sounds bearish, and why he still thinks a defense-in-depth strategy might keep society on the rails.安全AGI TimelinesAI security+3
3:27:22EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年3月19日播客The AI Table Has Three Seats Left: Zvi on the Middle Game, Jobs, and Anthropic's Promises主持 Nathan LabenzOn his 12th Cognitive Revolution appearance, Zvi Mowshowitz argues early 2026 is the start of the middle — with only three labs still playing, a real job shock underway, and Anthropic's safety commitments reduced to trust us.企业与战略AI StrategyAGI Timelines+3
1:03:00EN
Unsupervised Learning: With Jacob Effron· 2026年1月29日播客A Model That Solves New Math Problems Every Week Still Isn't AGI主持 Jacob EffronFormer OpenAI research VP Jerry Tworek on why scaling still works, why models go hopeless when they fail, and why he left to chase continual learning.模型与训练Reinforcement LearningAGI Timelines+3
1:55:02EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2026年1月4日播客An Index Fund on AGI: How MATS Filters the Next 120 AI Safety Researchers主持 Nathan LabenzRyan Kidd, co-executive director of MATS, tells Nathan Labenz why he will not shout a timeline, why every safety technique is also a capabilities technique, and who actually gets hired.安全安全与治理AI research+3
2:20:35EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2025年9月28日播客ChatGPT Is a Thousand Days Old. Emad Mostaque Says We Have About a Thousand Left.主持 Nathan LabenzThe Stability AI founder’s new economics argues that when intelligence is abundant, scarcity-based money and GDP stop making sense.企业与战略AI StrategyAGI Timelines+3
3:14:49EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2025年9月6日播客Nothing This Summer Jumped the Curve: Why Zvi Lengthened His AGI Timelines主持 Nathan LabenzOn his tenth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that GPT-5 and IMO gold stayed on trend, while chip policy, energy, and reinforcement learning nudged his p(doom) slightly up.安全AGI Timelines安全与治理+3
2:12:04EN
Lex Fridman· 2025年6月5日播客 · 2 人对谈From a Five-Year Phone Queue to 480 Trillion Tokens a Month嘉宾 Sundar Pichai · 主持 Lex FridmanSundar Pichai talks with Lex Fridman about Chennai, the AI package, Search, Chrome, Waymo, and why he stayed calm when the headlines said Google was finished.企业与战略AI StrategyAGI Timelines+3
2:01:42EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2025年5月1日播客He Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio Shelter主持 Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.安全安全与治理Existential Risk+3
1:57:00EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年12月28日播客Less Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI First主持 Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.安全安全与治理AGI Timelines+3
1:59:30EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年11月12日播客He Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI Labs主持 Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.安全安全与治理通用人工智能+3
5:15:00EN
Lex Fridman· 2024年11月11日播客 · 2 人对谈Dario Amodei Has Seen This Scaling Movie Enough Times嘉宾 Dario Amodei · 主持 Lex FridmanAnthropic’s CEO puts numbers on frontier training costs and AGI, then hands the mic to the people who shape Claude’s character and look inside its weights.模型与训练安全与治理Scaling Laws+3
1:54:17EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年8月28日播客Metaculus Flagged Covid in January 2020. Now It Is Putting AI on the Forecasting Desk主持 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz talks with Metaculus CEO Deger Turan about epistemic security, a year-long bot tournament, and why a useful forecast is harder than an accurate one.评估与可观测性评估Benchmarks+3
46:09EN
No Priors: AI, Machine Learning, Tech, & Startups· 2024年8月1日播客 · 2 人对谈Oriol Vinyals: The Days of Burning 90% of Compute on Pretraining Are Numbered主持 Sarah Guo, Elad GilGoogle DeepMind’s VP of research on Gemini, long context, the coming shift from pretraining to RL, and why AGI may never have a finish line.模型与训练AGI TimelinesPretraining & midtraining+3
55:13EN
Sequoia Capital· 2024年7月2日播客The Best AI Scores 39% on This Test. Zapier’s Co-Founder Put $1 Million on Beating ItFrançois Chollet designed ARC to measure skill-acquisition efficiency; five years later humans still crush it and frontier models do not.评估与可观测性BenchmarksAGI Timelines+3
1:01:39EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年4月13日播客GPT-5 Wants 100 Trillion Tokens. Does Earth Have Enough?主持 Nathan LabenzTraining GPT-3 took about a trillion tokens; GPT-4 took about ten trillion. The next jump is a data question as much as a compute one.模型与训练Scaling LawsSynthetic data+3
1:29:21EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年3月21日播客2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% Extinction主持 Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.安全AI researchAGI Timelines+3
1:50:09EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2024年2月27日播客Nine Hundred Occupations, Twenty Years, and Still No AI Revolution主持 Nathan LabenzEconomist Robin Hanson tells Cognitive Revolution why each new AI demo looks like the last one, and why wages and headcount are the tests that matter.企业与战略AGI TimelinesAI Strategy+3
2:42:44EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2023年7月11日播客The Former Trader Who Writes 10,000 Words a Week Puts AI Doom at 60 Percent主持 Nathan LabenzZvi Mowshowitz tells Nathan Labenz why today's language models are a gift, why the default future past human level is extinction or a worthless universe, and who actually moves the AI debate.安全安全与治理Existential Risk+3
1:42:48EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2023年4月13日播客The Skype Co-Founder Who Wants a Six-Month Pause on Frontier AI主持 Nathan LabenzJaan Tallinn argues that each 10× jump in training compute carries a 1 to 50 percent chance of ending everything, and that the labs still will not say when they will stop.安全Existential Risk安全与治理+3
1:33:49EN
Cognitive Revolution "How AI Changes Everything"· 2023年4月4日播客Safe Only Because It's Weak: A GPT-4 Red-Teamer and Two Founders Debate the Pause主持 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz, who spent six months trying to make GPT-4 misbehave, wants labs to stop training anything bigger; Chroma's Anton Troynikov and Lindy's Flo Crivello argue a six-month freeze buys little and may select for the least careful labs.安全安全与治理Existential Risk+3
1:36:11EN
Lex Fridman· 2022年9月17日播客 · 2 人对谈2029 Passes the Turing Test. 2045 Is Still the Singularity嘉宾 Ray Kurzweil · 主持 Lex FridmanRay Kurzweil tells Lex Fridman why his dates have not moved, how to invent in the present tense, and why the replica of his father answered the meaning of life with one word: love.通用人工智能AGI TimelinesConsciousness & Intelligence+3
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