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45:30ENA $20,000 AI Agent Replacing a $90,000 SDR: Manny Medina on Pricing in the Agent EraA fully loaded human SDR costs $70,000 to $90,000 a year; one AI SDR pitch is $20,000 per agent for 80% of the work, plus a bonus when targets are hit.
3:08:35ENo3 isn't AGI. Zvi Mowshowitz still put p(doom) at 70 percent진행자 Nathan LabenzOn his ninth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that OpenAI's o3 is a tool-use leap rather than AGI, then explains why he raised the probability of AI catastrophe anyway.
1:01:21ENJason Wilk on Dave’s Turnaround, Credit and Digital Banking게스트 Jason Wilk · 진행자 Harry StebbingsThe Dave founder discusses going public, AI underwriting, customer acquisition and competing to serve consumers with short-term credit.
2:27:59ENA 10-to-90% P(doom) Host Gets Asked If His Show Sounds Like It진행자 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Liron Shapira sit on the same side of the table and test a week of AI news against the question of how likely extinction actually is.
15:15ENEarly Reactions to OpenAI o3 and o4-mini: Tool Use, Math and MistakesMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman reviews 2025 demos and benchmark reports, from location guessing and coding to simple failures that challenge the hype.
15:45ENAI News: Gemini 2.5 Flash, OpenAI Models, Claude Research and Kling 2.0Matthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman reviews a week of 2025 model releases, research tools and agent announcements, including historical price and benchmark comparisons.
3:29:02ENRobert Rodriguez: Sift the Ashes, Keep the Pipe Open, Don't Blink게스트 Robert Rodriguez · 진행자 Lex FridmanThe director of El Mariachi, Desperado, Sin City, and Alita: Battle Angel tells Lex Fridman how limitation, failure, sound, and identity became his method.
40:54ENDiscovery rates collapsed tenfold. KoBold still found a 5% copper deposit진행자 Sarah Guo, Elad GilJosh Goldman explains why KoBold Metals treats mineral exploration as an information problem, pairing AI with century-old maps to hunt lithium and copper.
1:35:02ENa16z, Founders Fund and the Risks Behind Venture’s Biggest Funds게스트 Rory O’Driscoll, Jason Lemkin · 진행자 Harry StebbingsHarry Stebbings, Rory O’Driscoll and Jason Lemkin debate fund size, late-stage returns, AI uncertainty and delayed liquidity.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at War진행자 Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
15:46ENOpenAI o3 and o4-mini: Tool Use, Benchmarks and the First Codex CLIMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman reviews OpenAI’s April 2025 reasoning-model release, a scientific image-analysis demonstration and the debut of its terminal coding agent.
14:24ENOpenAI o3 and o4-mini: Real Progress, Uneven ReliabilityA launch-day review weighs strong test scores and tool use against simple errors, evaluation differences and cost.
58:11ENPatrick Hsu Wants an App Store for Biology, Not Just Better DrugsThe Arc Institute co-founder argues that Evo 2, trained on genomes rather than proteins, should underpin tools for every step of the scientific method.
51:08ENThe Transformer Co-Author Who Says Scaling Hit a Wall진행자 Jacob EffronCohere CEO Aidan Gomez tells Redpoint that a $100 million model is still an amnesiac genius, and that enterprise AI money is concentrating in support, research, and the back office.
21:16ENGPT-4.1, Mini and Nano: Coding, Long Context and 2025 API PricingMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman reviews OpenAI’s April 2025 model launch, selected coding benchmarks and demonstrations, and a sponsored Box evaluation.
1:12:26ENVictor Lazarte on Founders, AI and Investing Through a Technology Shift게스트 Victor Lazarte · 진행자 Harry StebbingsThe Benchmark partner discusses founder selection, AI revenue quality, the future of work and the role of a venture investor.
1:37:40ENChina, Japan, and Korea fought only one war in six centuries진행자 Nathan LabenzFrom 1200 to 1800, East Asia’s great powers stayed at peace while Europe fought almost without pause — and David C. Kang argues that history still shapes how Asia lives with China.
41:52ENMercor Hit $100 Million ARR Teaching Models to Hire. Humans Now Write the Exams.진행자 Sarah Guo, Elad GilBrendan Foody tells Sarah Guo and Elad Gil how Mercor automated recruiting for frontier labs — and why building evals may become the world's most common knowledge job.
1:26:21ENFor under $10, Google's AI independently recovered a lab result nobody had published진행자 Nathan LabenzVivek Natarajan and Anil Palepu tell Nathan Labenz how AMIE beats primary-care doctors on treatment plans, and how Co-Scientist matched Imperial College's unpublished bacterial-resistance mechanism.
1:26:17ENTom Hulme and Stan Boland on Talent, Capital and the UK Tech Ecosystem게스트 Tom Hulme, Stan Boland · 진행자 Harry StebbingsThe investor and entrepreneur debate how the UK can retain talent, finance global companies and build a stronger technology economy.
43:51ENThe $177 Billion GPU Bet Only Works If AI Becomes a $1.5 Trillion Market진행자 Jacob EffronFour Redpoint partners walk their limited partners through where AI value will accrue—and why revenue is now the easiest metric to misread.
1:26:19ENHe turned down a billion dollars for a world with a billion developersReplit CEO Amjad Masad tells Sequoia’s Training Data why a six-person company walked away from a life-changing offer, and why a billion people writing software is a better end state than AGI as universal basic income.
3:19:00ENTen Minus Two Equals Twenty게스트 Dave Smith · 진행자 Lex FridmanComedian and libertarian Dave Smith tells Lex Fridman that American wars keep manufacturing enemies, that Gaza and Ukraine follow the same arithmetic, and that long conversations broke the old monopoly on selling war.
18:23ENLlama 4 Reactions: Benchmarks, Long Context and Early TestsMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman reviews early industry reactions to Meta's Llama 4 release, from benchmark and price comparisons to long-context claims and local inference.
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