Wang Mengqiu on Investment Cycles, Career Turns and Finding Certainty

Zhang Xiaojun introduces her interview with ClearVue Partners founding partner Wang Mengqiu, recorded May 15, 2022, during pandemic travel restrictions in Beijing. They discuss investment cycles, Wang’s career and characters from Dream of the Red Chamber.

Wang says many investors could not travel, video meetings allowed only preliminary assessment and due diligence took longer. Even some otherwise healthy companies faced supply-chain, warehousing and logistics disruption.

She considers predictions that US-dollar private equity would disappear from China too pessimistic. Early-stage investors were still examining opportunities, though with more time for caution.

She says “capital winter” is often used when a fashionable sector cools: money crowds into an opportunity, then retreats when commercialization disappoints. This is her characterization of an industry cycle.

She recalls Silicon Valley before the 2000 dot-com bust: intense hiring and scarce housing, frequent recruitment events for students, and friends discussing stock options.

By her graduation in 2001, hiring had abruptly cooled and some stocks had fallen sharply. She says companies still grew after the shakeout but the earlier recovery should not be mechanically applied to later situations.

She also recalls the 2008 financial crisis and the fresh-food, sharing-economy and unattended-retail booms she witnessed after entering investing in late 2013. She sees shorter cycles of concentrated funding and retreat across sectors.

In her view, some funds pull back after setbacks in a popular sector, while well-funded firms wait for another opportunity. “Winter” can also describe investors’ state of mind, she says.

For 2022, she sees deeper changes in cross-border fundraising, investment and exits in addition to ordinary sector cycles. Some funds still have capital but are reassessing what to invest in and how to enter and exit.

She distinguishes market herding during the dot-com bubble from the more complex external environment she perceived in 2022. Her analysis reflects that moment, not a guarantee about later markets.

She describes a shorter cycle in new consumer brands: some funds pursued rapid subsequent financing and valuation increases, then began waiting for operating results while investors searched for new themes.

She cites changes in US-listed Chinese equities and US–China relations as factors affecting prior investment methods. In her view, profitable mature businesses had more room to adjust than early companies still dependent on financing.

She calls some investors’ position “holding cash and waiting”: they had capital but were more cautious. Relatively optimistic, she still saw opportunities in China, though pandemic restrictions slowed deals.

During home restrictions, her routine included tending flowers, exercise, reading about new fields and a small number of project meetings. She read about quantum science, chemistry, biology and hydrogen as well as subjects not directly tied to investing.

She cites The World Atlas of Wine: even without an immediate use, an interesting subject can be worth reading, and old knowledge may become useful much later.

Asked about emigrating, she says she and her husband decided twenty years earlier to build their lives in China. She respects others’ family choices but feels her own cultural context and work opportunities fit China better.

She clarifies that despite the difficult 2001 hiring market, she worked for more than a year at a small Silicon Valley networking startup, which later closed after failing to secure needed financing.

After returning to China, she joined Baidu through contacts. She recalls a company of fewer than 100 people and a small, focused engineering team she enjoyed working with, without having foreseen its future.

She attributes her later growth into technical management both to personal effort and to the company’s growth, opportunities in a core business and supportive leaders. She did not plan each promotion on a fixed timetable.

After Baidu’s listing, demanding work and physical discomfort led her to consider resigning. Following more than a month’s rest, she realized she still liked the work and returned, learning about her own needs.

After leaving Baidu she planned a break before deciding what to do, but soon joined ClearVue in investing. She says building an operating business from scratch was not her preferred path and she favored a small team.

Asked about the next investment theme, she says she does not know a definitive answer and looks for testable opportunities amid change. She remains interested in consumer demand, including new lifestyles such as the camping trend at the time.

She also watches Chinese supply chains expanding overseas in different categories and technical improvements in materials, processes and production behind consumer products. Individual opportunities still need research rather than a thematic label alone.

In technology she distinguishes projects nearing commercialization with applications within a few years from foundational work that may need more than a decade but have long-term value. Quantum technology and cultivated meat were among areas she was examining.

She says deep-tech founders need sustained focus and hard work, describing her preferred type as a capable, grounded person willing to solve problems for years. This is her own hiring and investing preference.

Asked whether any business is immune to cycles, she says nearly every business faces some cycle, whether financial, agricultural or climatic. Even categories within basic needs differ.

In downturns she recommends reading, learning and broadening experience, calling it investing in oneself. This is personal advice, not a guarantee of financial returns.

For existing founders she uses the image of crouching: survive while retaining the ability to leap again. She discourages risking everything and recommends managing cash and funding according to the business.

For would-be founders she advises clarifying motivation, product and timing. A unique technology, prepared team and genuine need may still justify starting, in her view.

She believes entrepreneurship requires strong motivation and adaptability rather than a particular personality or zodiac sign; some technical founders can seek a suitable CEO partner.

Turning to Dream of the Red Chamber, she picks Tanchun as having entrepreneurial motivation and ability. Asked which fictional character could become an online creator, she jokes that distinct personalities could each find an audience.

Reflecting on several cycles she has lived through, she says reading history helps her stay calm and recognize that generations experience change differently.

She borrows Ray Dalio’s cycle framework to describe her concern about the global environment in 2022, while acknowledging that she cannot know the duration of a downturn or whether technology will accelerate or slow change.

The available local transcript ends at about 53:43, with approximately a minute left in the video. The remaining ending is not transcribed and is not reconstructed here.