In 30 seconds
Elad Gil contrasts his interpretations of internet and mobile value capture and speculates about the split between incumbents and startups in AI. His percentages are illustrative, not measured outcomes.
- 1InternetGil sees differing shares of value across technology waves.
- 2MobileHe considers mobile more favorable to established platforms.
- 3AI scenarioHis proposed AI split is speculative.
Takeaways
- Gil sees differing shares of value across technology waves.
- He considers mobile more favorable to established platforms.
- His proposed AI split is speculative.
Read the edited text by chapter
Technology waves
A speculative comparison of incumbents and startups.
In this April 2024 excerpt, investor Elad Gil compares how established companies and startups may capture value during technology waves. His percentages are illustrative estimates and his AI split is a prediction, not a measured outcome.
Gil characterizes the early internet as more favorable to new companies, citing Google and Amazon while noting that Microsoft also benefited. He contrasts this with mobile, where established platforms Apple and Google captured substantial value alongside newer companies.
He describes the first decade of modern AI as an incumbent-led wave and speculates that the next phase could still favor incumbents while leaving a meaningful share for startups. His 80–20 split is a rough scenario rather than a forecast supported by a stated measurement method.
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