En 30 segundos
Thrive Capital’s Vince Hankes discusses the firm’s internal debate about investing in OpenAI, the difficulty of forecasting technology adoption and the need for exceptional outcomes at a high entry price.
- 1A team decisionHankes describes disagreement followed by a collective commitment.
- 2A high hurdleA high entry price requires exceptional outcomes for strong returns.
- 3Qualitative scenariosThrive weighed potential applications alongside quantitative analysis.
Conclusiones
- The reported valuation and investment context are from 2023.
- A high entry price requires exceptional future outcomes to yield strong returns.
- Adoption scenarios are uncertain, even when early growth is strong.
- Hankes describes combining quantitative analysis with qualitative upside scenarios.
Lee el texto editado por capítulos
The price question
In this May 2023 interview excerpt, Harry Stebbings asks Thrive Capital partner Vince Hankes how the firm assessed its investment in OpenAI at a high reported valuation. The figures and market context are historical.
In this May 2023 interview excerpt, Harry Stebbings asks Thrive Capital partner Vince Hankes how the firm assessed its investment in OpenAI at a high reported valuation. The figures and market context are historical.
Hankes says the price prompted a heated internal discussion. Thrive makes decisions as a team, he says, and once a decision is made the partners commit to it despite earlier disagreements.
Exceptional outcomes and uncertainty
He acknowledges that a very high entry price requires exceptional outcomes to produce strong returns. The investment therefore involves both the possibility of substantial upside and the risk that those outcomes do not materialize.
He acknowledges that a very high entry price requires exceptional outcomes to produce strong returns. The investment therefore involves both the possibility of substantial upside and the risk that those outcomes do not materialize.
Hankes argues that adoption of major technologies can be hard to forecast using ordinary spreadsheets. In his view, scenarios that initially look implausible can sometimes become realistic if a technology scales rapidly.
Assessing upside
He describes balancing quantitative analysis with a qualitative examination of what could go right. Possible applications he mentions include search and workflow automation; he does not claim those outcomes are guaranteed.
He describes balancing quantitative analysis with a qualitative examination of what could go right. Possible applications he mentions include search and workflow automation; he does not claim those outcomes are guaranteed.
He says early product adoption reinforced the firm’s view of scalability, while acknowledging uncertainty about the durable revenue model. The firm decided that potential compounding upside justified the price risk in its assessment.
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