Matthew Berman on Cal AI, MyFitnessPal and the Cost of Replicating Software

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Matthew Berman argues that AI-assisted coding is changing the economics of software, using MyFitnessPal's acquisition of Cal AI as an example. He distinguishes a quickly built basic app from an existing business with revenue and a community, and offers a critical interpretation of MyFitnessPal's ownership history.

1A basic app versus a businessBerman says a basic version could be vibe coded in less than a day, while acknowledging that its revenue and community are not so easily replicated.
2MyFitnessPal's ownership historyHe recalls Under Armour's 2015 acquisition and subsequent sale, interpreting the price difference as evidence of poor management.
3The Cal AI acquisitionBerman points to MyFitnessPal's purchase of the teen-built rival and argues that the founders sold at an opportune moment.

Das Wichtigste

Berman believes a basic version of Cal AI could be built quickly with AI coding, though its revenue and community are another matter.
MyFitnessPal's ownership changed hands from Under Armour to a private equity firm before it acquired Cal AI.
Berman sees the deal as an example of the pressure AI-assisted development could put on software businesses.

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The replication argument

Berman considers whether AI coding makes a calorie-tracking app easy to replicate. He draws a distinction between a basic product and its established revenue and community.

MyFitnessPal's acquisition of Cal AI raises a question about where software is headed. Could someone vibe code the app in less than a day? I think a very basic version, yes—but that would not reproduce the $30 million in annual recurring revenue or the community. Even so, I think the broader story will repeat across the software industry.

The ownership timeline

He recounts MyFitnessPal's acquisition by Under Armour and its later sale. He argues that nontechnical ownership can struggle to manage software, a judgment he says comes from direct experience.

MyFitnessPal was founded in 2005, and Under Armour bought it ten years later for $475 million. My view, based on direct experience, is that nontechnical people often struggle to run software products. Under Armour sold the business five years later at what I describe as a $130 million loss. That is the difference between the announced purchase and sale prices; the sale included potential earn-out payments, so it is not by itself an accounting loss calculation.

I'm similarly skeptical of private equity ownership of software companies. MyFitnessPal bought Cal AI, an up-and-coming rival built by teenagers, and I think Zach Yadegari and his team got out at a good time. In my view, Cal AI's functionality can now be replicated in less than a day. When that claim was made, Yadegari himself replied 'True' and laughed—but that is not a demonstration that its business or full product can be duplicated in a day.