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1:26:46ENThere Likely Is a Level of Intelligence We Shouldn't Go Past진행자 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz brings notes from The Curve, a chip startup whose token bill beat payroll, and a software industry that now performance-reviews people for Claude slop.
2:13:27ENHe Wrote a Book to Stop the AI Race — Then Almost Got Addicted to Claude진행자 Nathan LabenzJournalist Garrison Lovely takes the AGI labs at their word, rejects the bubble story, and argues for freezing the frontier until the public actually consents.
3:10:49ENCrunch Time: Ajeya Cotra's Playbook for the Months Before Superintelligence진행자 Nathan LabenzA conversation on recursive self-improvement, public warning systems, and using each generation of AI to align and control the next.
1:44:15ENNathan Labenz's p(doom) Is 10 to 90 Percent. He Is More Optimistic Anyway진행자 Nathan LabenzFive years ago, expecting AGI by 2035 made you an extremist. On The Intelligence Horizon, the Cognitive Revolution host explains why the same forecast now sounds bearish, and why he still thinks a defense-in-depth strategy might keep society on the rails.
3:27:22ENThe AI Table Has Three Seats Left: Zvi on the Middle Game, Jobs, and Anthropic's Promises진행자 Nathan LabenzOn his 12th Cognitive Revolution appearance, Zvi Mowshowitz argues early 2026 is the start of the middle — with only three labs still playing, a real job shock underway, and Anthropic's safety commitments reduced to trust us.
1:03:00ENA Model That Solves New Math Problems Every Week Still Isn't AGI진행자 Jacob EffronFormer OpenAI research VP Jerry Tworek on why scaling still works, why models go hopeless when they fail, and why he left to chase continual learning.
1:55:02ENAn Index Fund on AGI: How MATS Filters the Next 120 AI Safety Researchers진행자 Nathan LabenzRyan Kidd, co-executive director of MATS, tells Nathan Labenz why he will not shout a timeline, why every safety technique is also a capabilities technique, and who actually gets hired.
2:20:35ENChatGPT Is a Thousand Days Old. Emad Mostaque Says We Have About a Thousand Left.진행자 Nathan LabenzThe Stability AI founder’s new economics argues that when intelligence is abundant, scarcity-based money and GDP stop making sense.
3:14:49ENNothing This Summer Jumped the Curve: Why Zvi Lengthened His AGI Timelines진행자 Nathan LabenzOn his tenth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that GPT-5 and IMO gold stayed on trend, while chip policy, energy, and reinforcement learning nudged his p(doom) slightly up.
2:12:04ENFrom a Five-Year Phone Queue to 480 Trillion Tokens a Month게스트 Sundar Pichai · 진행자 Lex FridmanSundar Pichai talks with Lex Fridman about Chennai, the AI package, Search, Chrome, Waymo, and why he stayed calm when the headlines said Google was finished.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio Shelter진행자 Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI First진행자 Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI Labs진행자 Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
5:15:00ENDario Amodei Has Seen This Scaling Movie Enough Times게스트 Dario Amodei · 진행자 Lex FridmanAnthropic’s CEO puts numbers on frontier training costs and AGI, then hands the mic to the people who shape Claude’s character and look inside its weights.
1:54:17ENMetaculus Flagged Covid in January 2020. Now It Is Putting AI on the Forecasting Desk진행자 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz talks with Metaculus CEO Deger Turan about epistemic security, a year-long bot tournament, and why a useful forecast is harder than an accurate one.
46:09ENOriol Vinyals: The Days of Burning 90% of Compute on Pretraining Are Numbered진행자 Sarah Guo, Elad GilGoogle DeepMind’s VP of research on Gemini, long context, the coming shift from pretraining to RL, and why AGI may never have a finish line.
55:13ENThe Best AI Scores 39% on This Test. Zapier’s Co-Founder Put $1 Million on Beating ItFrançois Chollet designed ARC to measure skill-acquisition efficiency; five years later humans still crush it and frontier models do not.
1:01:39ENGPT-5 Wants 100 Trillion Tokens. Does Earth Have Enough?진행자 Nathan LabenzTraining GPT-3 took about a trillion tokens; GPT-4 took about ten trillion. The next jump is a data question as much as a compute one.
1:29:21EN2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% Extinction진행자 Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.
1:50:09ENNine Hundred Occupations, Twenty Years, and Still No AI Revolution진행자 Nathan LabenzEconomist Robin Hanson tells Cognitive Revolution why each new AI demo looks like the last one, and why wages and headcount are the tests that matter.
2:42:44ENThe Former Trader Who Writes 10,000 Words a Week Puts AI Doom at 60 Percent진행자 Nathan LabenzZvi Mowshowitz tells Nathan Labenz why today's language models are a gift, why the default future past human level is extinction or a worthless universe, and who actually moves the AI debate.
1:42:48ENThe Skype Co-Founder Who Wants a Six-Month Pause on Frontier AI진행자 Nathan LabenzJaan Tallinn argues that each 10× jump in training compute carries a 1 to 50 percent chance of ending everything, and that the labs still will not say when they will stop.
1:33:49ENSafe Only Because It's Weak: A GPT-4 Red-Teamer and Two Founders Debate the Pause진행자 Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz, who spent six months trying to make GPT-4 misbehave, wants labs to stop training anything bigger; Chroma's Anton Troynikov and Lindy's Flo Crivello argue a six-month freeze buys little and may select for the least careful labs.
1:36:11EN2029 Passes the Turing Test. 2045 Is Still the Singularity게스트 Ray Kurzweil · 진행자 Lex FridmanRay Kurzweil tells Lex Fridman why his dates have not moved, how to invent in the present tense, and why the replica of his father answered the meaning of life with one word: love.
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