絞り込み結果
24 件並び順
1:26:46ENThere Likely Is a Level of Intelligence We Shouldn't Go Pastホスト Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz brings notes from The Curve, a chip startup whose token bill beat payroll, and a software industry that now performance-reviews people for Claude slop.
2:13:27ENHe Wrote a Book to Stop the AI Race — Then Almost Got Addicted to Claudeホスト Nathan LabenzJournalist Garrison Lovely takes the AGI labs at their word, rejects the bubble story, and argues for freezing the frontier until the public actually consents.
3:10:49ENCrunch Time: Ajeya Cotra's Playbook for the Months Before Superintelligenceホスト Nathan LabenzA conversation on recursive self-improvement, public warning systems, and using each generation of AI to align and control the next.
1:44:15ENNathan Labenz's p(doom) Is 10 to 90 Percent. He Is More Optimistic Anywayホスト Nathan LabenzFive years ago, expecting AGI by 2035 made you an extremist. On The Intelligence Horizon, the Cognitive Revolution host explains why the same forecast now sounds bearish, and why he still thinks a defense-in-depth strategy might keep society on the rails.
3:27:22ENThe AI Table Has Three Seats Left: Zvi on the Middle Game, Jobs, and Anthropic's Promisesホスト Nathan LabenzOn his 12th Cognitive Revolution appearance, Zvi Mowshowitz argues early 2026 is the start of the middle — with only three labs still playing, a real job shock underway, and Anthropic's safety commitments reduced to trust us.
1:03:00ENA Model That Solves New Math Problems Every Week Still Isn't AGIホスト Jacob EffronFormer OpenAI research VP Jerry Tworek on why scaling still works, why models go hopeless when they fail, and why he left to chase continual learning.
1:55:02ENAn Index Fund on AGI: How MATS Filters the Next 120 AI Safety Researchersホスト Nathan LabenzRyan Kidd, co-executive director of MATS, tells Nathan Labenz why he will not shout a timeline, why every safety technique is also a capabilities technique, and who actually gets hired.
2:20:35ENChatGPT Is a Thousand Days Old. Emad Mostaque Says We Have About a Thousand Left.ホスト Nathan LabenzThe Stability AI founder’s new economics argues that when intelligence is abundant, scarcity-based money and GDP stop making sense.
3:14:49ENNothing This Summer Jumped the Curve: Why Zvi Lengthened His AGI Timelinesホスト Nathan LabenzOn his tenth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that GPT-5 and IMO gold stayed on trend, while chip policy, energy, and reinforcement learning nudged his p(doom) slightly up.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio Shelterホスト Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI Firstホスト Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI Labsホスト Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
1:54:17ENMetaculus Flagged Covid in January 2020. Now It Is Putting AI on the Forecasting Deskホスト Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz talks with Metaculus CEO Deger Turan about epistemic security, a year-long bot tournament, and why a useful forecast is harder than an accurate one.
1:01:39ENGPT-5 Wants 100 Trillion Tokens. Does Earth Have Enough?ホスト Nathan LabenzTraining GPT-3 took about a trillion tokens; GPT-4 took about ten trillion. The next jump is a data question as much as a compute one.
1:29:21EN2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% Extinctionホスト Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.
1:50:09ENNine Hundred Occupations, Twenty Years, and Still No AI Revolutionホスト Nathan LabenzEconomist Robin Hanson tells Cognitive Revolution why each new AI demo looks like the last one, and why wages and headcount are the tests that matter.
2:42:44ENThe Former Trader Who Writes 10,000 Words a Week Puts AI Doom at 60 Percentホスト Nathan LabenzZvi Mowshowitz tells Nathan Labenz why today's language models are a gift, why the default future past human level is extinction or a worthless universe, and who actually moves the AI debate.
1:42:48ENThe Skype Co-Founder Who Wants a Six-Month Pause on Frontier AIホスト Nathan LabenzJaan Tallinn argues that each 10× jump in training compute carries a 1 to 50 percent chance of ending everything, and that the labs still will not say when they will stop.
1:33:49ENSafe Only Because It's Weak: A GPT-4 Red-Teamer and Two Founders Debate the Pauseホスト Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz, who spent six months trying to make GPT-4 misbehave, wants labs to stop training anything bigger; Chroma's Anton Troynikov and Lindy's Flo Crivello argue a six-month freeze buys little and may select for the least careful labs.
1:25:13ENCodex Is Not Just a Coding Tool: OpenAI's Plan for an Agent That Behaves Like a Teammateホスト Lenny RachitskyCodex product lead Alexander Embiricos explains the 20x growth, why every useful agent may need to write code, and why human review speed is the real bottleneck.
1:23:56ENA Three-Month Window: The AI 2027 Authors on Superhuman Coders, Faked Alignment and Who Ends Up in Controlホスト Jacob EffronDaniel Kokotajlo and Thomas Larsen walk through their AI 2027 scenario, where they disagree on timelines and alignment, and what they think governments and the public should do.
1:14:59ENWhy Anthropic's Ben Mann Thinks the Exponential Hasn't Slowed, and Why He Still Worries About Safetyホスト Lenny RachitskyThe Anthropic co-founder on the AI talent war, scaling laws, the economic Turing test, jobs, leaving OpenAI, constitutional AI and how he forecasts the risk of superintelligence.
50:23ENOpenAI’s Platform Bet: Where AI Value Accrues, Why Open Source Trails, and When Superintelligence Arrivesホスト Jacob EffronPeter Welinder explains OpenAI’s platform strategy, the case for proprietary frontier models over open source, the enterprise hallucination problem, and his speculative timeline for AGI and superintelligence.
2:18:07ENGambling on Trump for the AI Era: Nathan Labenz and Samuel Hammond Argue the Stakesホスト Nathan LabenzA long, good-natured debate over whether Trump's high-variance, ideas-driven coalition or a stable incrementalist Democratic establishment is the better bet for governing AI, China policy and a possible intelligence explosion.








