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1:26:46ENThere Likely Is a Level of Intelligence We Shouldn't Go PastAnime : Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz brings notes from The Curve, a chip startup whose token bill beat payroll, and a software industry that now performance-reviews people for Claude slop.
2:13:27ENHe Wrote a Book to Stop the AI Race — Then Almost Got Addicted to ClaudeAnime : Nathan LabenzJournalist Garrison Lovely takes the AGI labs at their word, rejects the bubble story, and argues for freezing the frontier until the public actually consents.
0:55ENAGI, Recursive Self-Improvement and SuperintelligenceMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman introduces three AI terms and explains his expectations about their possible progression.
3:10:49ENCrunch Time: Ajeya Cotra's Playbook for the Months Before SuperintelligenceAnime : Nathan LabenzA conversation on recursive self-improvement, public warning systems, and using each generation of AI to align and control the next.
1:44:15ENNathan Labenz's p(doom) Is 10 to 90 Percent. He Is More Optimistic AnywayAnime : Nathan LabenzFive years ago, expecting AGI by 2035 made you an extremist. On The Intelligence Horizon, the Cognitive Revolution host explains why the same forecast now sounds bearish, and why he still thinks a defense-in-depth strategy might keep society on the rails.
3:27:22ENThe AI Table Has Three Seats Left: Zvi on the Middle Game, Jobs, and Anthropic's PromisesAnime : Nathan LabenzOn his 12th Cognitive Revolution appearance, Zvi Mowshowitz argues early 2026 is the start of the middle — with only three labs still playing, a real job shock underway, and Anthropic's safety commitments reduced to trust us.
1:03:00ENA Model That Solves New Math Problems Every Week Still Isn't AGIAnime : Jacob EffronFormer OpenAI research VP Jerry Tworek on why scaling still works, why models go hopeless when they fail, and why he left to chase continual learning.
1:55:02ENAn Index Fund on AGI: How MATS Filters the Next 120 AI Safety ResearchersAnime : Nathan LabenzRyan Kidd, co-executive director of MATS, tells Nathan Labenz why he will not shout a timeline, why every safety technique is also a capabilities technique, and who actually gets hired.
2:20:35ENChatGPT Is a Thousand Days Old. Emad Mostaque Says We Have About a Thousand Left.Anime : Nathan LabenzThe Stability AI founder’s new economics argues that when intelligence is abundant, scarcity-based money and GDP stop making sense.
3:14:49ENNothing This Summer Jumped the Curve: Why Zvi Lengthened His AGI TimelinesAnime : Nathan LabenzOn his tenth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that GPT-5 and IMO gold stayed on trend, while chip policy, energy, and reinforcement learning nudged his p(doom) slightly up.
1:07:41ENEdwin Chen on Building Surge and the Data Behind AI ModelsInvité : Edwin Chen · Anime : Harry StebbingsThe Surge founder discusses a bootstrapped business, training-data quality and the limits he sees in AI benchmarks and synthetic data.
2:12:04ENFrom a Five-Year Phone Queue to 480 Trillion Tokens a MonthInvité : Sundar Pichai · Anime : Lex FridmanSundar Pichai talks with Lex Fridman about Chennai, the AI package, Search, Chrome, Waymo, and why he stayed calm when the headlines said Google was finished.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio ShelterAnime : Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstAnime : Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI LabsAnime : Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
5:15:00ENDario Amodei Has Seen This Scaling Movie Enough TimesInvité : Dario Amodei · Anime : Lex FridmanAnthropic’s CEO puts numbers on frontier training costs and AGI, then hands the mic to the people who shape Claude’s character and look inside its weights.
1:03:46ENZico Kolter on AI Safety, Scaling and the Limits of Open ModelsInvité : Zico Kolter · Anime : Harry StebbingsThe Carnegie Mellon researcher and OpenAI board member explains why prompt injection worries him, how he thinks about open weights, and why AI progress remains uncertain.
1:54:17ENMetaculus Flagged Covid in January 2020. Now It Is Putting AI on the Forecasting DeskAnime : Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz talks with Metaculus CEO Deger Turan about epistemic security, a year-long bot tournament, and why a useful forecast is harder than an accurate one.
46:09ENOriol Vinyals: The Days of Burning 90% of Compute on Pretraining Are NumberedAnime : Sarah Guo, Elad GilGoogle DeepMind’s VP of research on Gemini, long context, the coming shift from pretraining to RL, and why AGI may never have a finish line.
1:09:06ENEthan Mollick on AI Adoption, Education and the Uncertain Path to AGIInvité : Ethan Mollick · Anime : Harry StebbingsThe Wharton professor argues that model progress is only part of the story: organizations, product design and human choices determine how AI changes work and education.
55:13ENThe Best AI Scores 39% on This Test. Zapier’s Co-Founder Put $1 Million on Beating ItFrançois Chollet designed ARC to measure skill-acquisition efficiency; five years later humans still crush it and frontier models do not.
1:01:39ENGPT-5 Wants 100 Trillion Tokens. Does Earth Have Enough?Anime : Nathan LabenzTraining GPT-3 took about a trillion tokens; GPT-4 took about ten trillion. The next jump is a data question as much as a compute one.
1:29:21EN2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% ExtinctionAnime : Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.
15:58ENElon Musk on Self-Driving, AI Compute and Electricity ConstraintsElon Musk, Matthew Berman · TeslaA 2024 Bosch interview and Matthew Berman’s commentary explore autonomous vehicles, robots and the infrastructure needed for AI.
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