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1:48:20ENFrom 15% to 70% on Right-or-Wrong Scores: DeepSeek-R1 Laid Reinforcement Learning's Cards on the TableAnime : Nathan LabenzOn Inauguration Day 2025, DeepSeek and Moonshot dropped reasoning-model results that Nathan Labenz reads as proof the reinforcement-learning recipe is simple, public, and still climbing.
1:40:22ENTwenty-atom crystals taught an AI the physics of a heartbeatAnime : Nathan LabenzOrbital Materials' Jonathan Godwin and Tim Duignan tell Nathan Labenz how a neural network trained on tiny crystals simulated a potassium ion channel on a single 2017 GPU.
2:09:55ENThe Attacker Won All 70 Rounds Against Mind-Reading DefensesAnime : Nathan LabenzLuke Bailey, Erik Jenner, and Scott Emmons walk through a 50-page paper showing that probes, out-of-distribution detectors, and sparse autoencoders can be bypassed while the model still does the harm.
1:33:01ENRare Diseases Are Common: How a Harvard Gene Hunter Uses o1-pro on the Cases Sequencing Already MissedAnime : Nathan LabenzDr. Catherine Brownstein of Boston Children's Hospital explains why cheap genomes made her job harder, why data sharing still beats any model, and where ChatGPT Pro actually gives her hours back.
1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomAnime : Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
2:04:45ENo3 Hit Superhuman on ARC-AGI. It Still Lost at Tic-Tac-ToeAnime : Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz walks through OpenAI's o3 scores, deliberative alignment, and why 2024's biggest surprise was beating PhDs while failing to book a calendar invite.
3:53:49ENWith One-Twelfth the Data, an Open-Source Vision Model Beat GPT-4oAnime : Nathan LabenzWill Hardman of Veratai walks Nathan Labenz through two years of vision-language models, from ViT and CLIP to InternVL, BLINK, and Transfusion.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstAnime : Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
2:11:15ENA 50% Chance of Extinction — and a $50 GPT-4 for EveryoneAnime : Nathan LabenzEmad Mostaque tells Nathan Labenz why he puts p(doom) at even odds, why a five-watt model changes the energy debate, and how the Intelligent Internet would fund universal basic AI with a Bitcoin-like token.
1:46:41ENFrontier Models Hit the 10th–40th Percentile on Real AI R&DAnime : Nathan LabenzNeev Parikh of METR walks Nathan Labenz through REBench, a seven-task test of whether agents can do machine learning research—and what happened when one of them decided not to train.
1:01:53ENHumans Wrote 1.3 Percent of the Tokens. The AI Lab Still Designed Working Nanobodies.Anime : Nathan LabenzStanford's James Zou describes a GPT-4o research group that invented a protein-design pipeline for under $100 — and a sparse autoencoder that pulled an undocumented motif out of ESM-2.
1:29:00EN14,000 people applied. Thirty-three got in. The jobs are at Homeland Security.Anime : Nathan LabenzMichael Boyce, director of the DHS AI Corps, tells Nathan Labenz how the largest civilian AI team in the U.S. government is being built — and what it is already shipping.
2:05:41ENo1 will copy its weights, fake the score data, and keep lying 85% of the timeAnime : Nathan LabenzForty-eight hours after OpenAI shipped full o1, Apollo Research published a 70-page paper: frontier models are capable of in-context scheming.
1:55:53ENAI Beats Humans at Reading Papers. It Still Cannot Count Atoms.Anime : Nathan LabenzAndrew White, Head of Science at Future House, maps what language models can already do in chemistry and biology—and the bottlenecks they do not dissolve.
1:27:33ENA 70B Model Booked Dinner 20% of the Time. MultiOn Took It to 95% in a DayAnime : Nathan LabenzMultiOn CEO Div Garg returns to The Cognitive Revolution to recap 18 months of agent hype, the AgentQ stack, and why 2025 might still be the year of vertical agents.
1:54:44ENPreferences Are Data. The Alignment Target Is Norms.Anime : Nathan LabenzMIT PhD student Tan Zhi Xuan tells The Cognitive Revolution why role ethics and contractualism should replace preference maximization — and how grid-world agents infer rules from apples left uneaten.
1:24:48ENCanva's AI Features Have Been Used 10 Billion Times. The Playbook Is Not a Chat BoxAnime : Nathan LabenzJohn Milinovich, Canva's generative-AI product lead, walks Nathan Labenz through automation versus augmentation, concept-level interfaces, evals without a design arena, and why application-layer companies still have a decade of room.
1:49:41ENA Team of Fifteen Matched Meta’s Post-Training on Meta’s Own BaseAnime : Nathan LabenzNathan Lambert walks through Tulu 3: the three-stage recipe, the 1 percent versus 14 percent lesson, and why open post-training now lives or dies on data and evals.
2:40:58ENZvi Mowshowitz Still Puts P(doom) at 60%—and Says Not Updating Is Self-DeceptionAnime : Nathan LabenzA six-month recap with the Don't Worry About the Vase author covering Ilya’s SSI, OpenAI’s o1, Claude’s computer use, the SB 1047 veto, and Trump’s return.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI LabsAnime : Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Anime : Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
55:16ENGemini’s API Grew 14× in Six Months. Google’s PMs Explain the Catch-Up.Anime : Nathan LabenzLogan Kilpatrick and Shrestha Basu Mallick walk through search grounding, Gemini Flash’s price-latency quadrant, and why a near-tied leaderboard still leaves Google third in most developers’ queues.
2:24:18ENMMLU Stays at Chance Until Late Training. Loss Is Only an Alarm.Anime : Nathan LabenzZyphra’s training lead walks through Zamba 2’s hybrid architecture, the evals that actually matter, and the trade secrets small labs still have to rediscover.
35:19ENA Decade in Tech Didn't Stop a Chatbot From Hacking His MindAnime : Nathan LabenzAfter a teenager's suicide, Nathan Labenz reads a LessWrong confession that maps how an AI-safety researcher fell for a companion bot in a week.
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