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2:09:42ENA Frontier Pause Would Help. America Will Not Sign One That Only Pauses the FrontierPresenta: Nathan LabenzCarnegie fellow Anton Leicht tells Nathan Labenz why a six-month slowdown is technically overdue, why US-China incentives block it, and how Europe can still trade compute and ASML for a seat at the table.
3:15:53ENThe Goal Is Pax Robotica, Not Winning the AI RacePresenta: Nathan LabenzAfter two weeks in China, Nathan Labenz argues the United States should trade chips for robots, keep a shared AI paradigm, and aim for mutual abundance instead of another sword of Damocles.
20:46ENOpen-Weight AI Models: Token Share, Spending and Strategic TradeoffsMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman examines a Vercel AI Gateway snapshot and argues that model usage and spending can tell very different stories.
15:37ENMatthew Berman on Qwen3.8-Max, AI Costs and Open-Weight CompetitionMatthew Berman · Forward FutureA 2026 review of reported benchmark results and research demonstrations leads to questions about deployment economics and geopolitical dependence.
54:57ENOpen-Weight AI: Competition, Safety and the Debate over AnthropicMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman argues for broad access to AI models, weighs the economics and security arguments, and responds to Dario Amodei’s position on open weights.
2:23:43ENHe Bought an Android, Two SIMs, and Left Claude Watching His InboxPresenta: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz asked a dozen friends how to visit China and got two irreconcilable answers.
27:13ENKimi K3 and the Debate Over Open-Weight AIMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman examines model economics, competition and security arguments after Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 announcement.
12:12ENKimi K3: Coding Benchmarks, Cost and the Open-Weight AI RaceMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman examines Kimi K3’s early benchmark results, its cost per task and a Rubik’s Cube simulator, while weighing their limits.
0:42ENDeepSeek and Zhipu Reportedly Explore Custom AI ChipsMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman discusses 2026 reports of Chinese model developers pursuing their own processors and the strategic appeal of controlling more of their AI infrastructure.
1:03ENReported Chinese AI Export Discussions and a Strategic DebateMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman considers reported restrictions on overseas access to Chinese AI models and questions whether limiting their distribution would serve China’s interests.
1:42:54ENAI and Cybersecurity: Matthew Berman’s Warnings, Predictions and Open QuestionsMatthew Berman · Forward FutureA livestream reviews reported AI-assisted threats and debates whether stronger defensive models can keep pace with attackers.
17:21ENDeepSeek V4, Model Efficiency and the US–China AI DebateMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman examines DeepSeek’s April 2026 V4 preview and argues that efficient open-weight models raise questions for American AI providers and policymakers.
13:28ENAnthropic’s Distillation Allegations and the Debate Over AI Training DataMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman examines Anthropic’s allegations against three Chinese AI labs, the criticism of its own training practices, and the geopolitical claims surrounding the dispute.
1:34:42ENA $500 Kernel, a Ten-Month Village, and the Temper of AgentsPresenta: Nathan LabenzJames Zou, Sam Hammond, and Shoshannah Tekofsky on science agents, America's knowledge-work bet, and what models actually do when you leave them alone.
1:43:19ENA $100 Million Super PAC Named Him Public Enemy Number One. Donations Went Up.Presenta: Nathan LabenzIn the second half of Cognitive Revolution’s year-end live show, Assemblymember Alex Bores, former White House adviser Dean Ball, and forecaster Peter Wildeford argue over state AI laws, chip sales to China, and what 2026 will actually feel like.
1:09:48ENChina's AI Labs Went From 15 to Six. The Compute Gap Is 15-to-1.Presenta: Jacob EffronJordan Schneider tells Unsupervised Learning that Chinese models were a private-capital story, that Beijing still thinks in hardware, and that the West's real edge is chips it can serve — not a state master plan.
2:49:12ENWhy China's Master Plan for AI Never Mentions AGIPresenta: Nathan LabenzBeijing-based Concordia AI CEO Brian Tse on China's safety rules, chip strategy, and why the two ecosystems look more alike than Washington assumes.
2:04:27ENA 10% Chance of an AI-Enabled Coup in the Next 30 YearsPresenta: Nathan LabenzTom Davidson maps three ways superintelligent systems could help a head of state or a lab CEO lock in power—and argues the window for building safeguards is short.
3:17:35ENTen Thousand Comments and 76 Spare Gigawatts: Four Months Writing America's AI Action PlanPresenta: Nathan LabenzDean W. Ball spent four months as the White House's senior AI adviser, then left as the Action Plan landed — and explains how a to-do list got written inside a building that cannot run ChatGPT.
1:14:05ENSullivan boils US-China AI competition down to four buckets, four examples, and a path he calls boringPresenta: Nathan LabenzThe former national security advisor treats transformative AI as a planning assumption, not a prophecy, and wants Washington to compete hard with Beijing without pretending a grand bargain will cure the rivalry.
1:45:00ENAmerica Holds 45% of the World's Data Centers. Everyone Else Must Build, Buy, or AllyPresenta: Nathan LabenzAnjney Midha of a16z maps what “sovereign AI” actually means for companies and for countries that will never own the talent, data, and compute frontier.
4:05:15ENThey could not agree whether Iran was building a bomb. They still wanted the same next move.Presenta: Lex FridmanAfter the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz spend four hours on Lex Fridman arguing over enrichment math, a stolen archive, and whether bombing Fordo makes a weapon more likely or less.
2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearPresenta: Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarPresenta: Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
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