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1:28:17ENAdam Gleave's Three Capability Tiers: Attack Agents in 5–7 Years, Fully AI Companies Around Year 14Presenta: Nathan LabenzFAR.AI and the UK AI Security Institute stacked adversarial attacks on frontier safeguard pipelines and found many breakthroughs were engineering failures, not a verdict against defense in depth.
1:32:47ENA transformer co-author wants a $160 million model no company ownsPresenta: Nathan LabenzIllia Polosukhin tells Nathan Labenz how NEAR turned a payments headache into a stack for private inference, shared-revenue training, and AI agents that still answer to a court.
2:04:27ENA 10% Chance of an AI-Enabled Coup in the Next 30 YearsPresenta: Nathan LabenzTom Davidson maps three ways superintelligent systems could help a head of state or a lab CEO lock in power—and argues the window for building safeguards is short.
1:51:24ENFrontier AI Insiders Don't Trust Regulators. A Berlin Group Built Them an Anonymous Off-RampPresenta: Nathan LabenzKarl Koch of the AI Whistleblower Initiative on gray-zone fears, retaliation, and a Tor-based way to ask for help before you decide anything.
1:44:11EN100 deaths or $1 billion: a 15-page New York bill would set a floor for frontier labsPresenta: Nathan LabenzAssembly member Alex Bores walks through the RAISE Act’s four requirements, its DeepSeek-inspired distillation clause, and why he says a 50-state patchwork is a fake problem until one state actually passes a law.
2:02:51ENAt a 60-Person Safety Offsite, Only Four Had Seen Nonprofit OpenAIPresenta: Nathan LabenzFormer OpenAI scientist Steven Adler on the Anthropic split, GPT-4, safety evaluations, and why he filed a brief to keep the company under nonprofit control.
2:29:00ENAssume the Model Is Already Scheming — Then Put It to WorkPresenta: Nathan LabenzRedwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris tells Rob Wiblin how to extract useful labor from AIs you cannot certify as aligned, using audits, honeypots, resampling, and factored cognition.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio ShelterPresenta: Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearPresenta: Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarPresenta: Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FilePresenta: Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
2:33:39ENThe Attacker Goes Second: Why Nicholas Carlini Keeps Breaking AI DefensesPresenta: Nathan LabenzA Google DeepMind security researcher on simple loss functions, 70% robust accuracy, and why the fix has to live in the system, not the model.
2:09:55ENThe Attacker Won All 70 Rounds Against Mind-Reading DefensesPresenta: Nathan LabenzLuke Bailey, Erik Jenner, and Scott Emmons walk through a 50-page paper showing that probes, out-of-distribution detectors, and sparse autoencoders can be bypassed while the model still does the harm.
1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomPresenta: Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
1:46:41ENFrontier Models Hit the 10th–40th Percentile on Real AI R&DPresenta: Nathan LabenzNeev Parikh of METR walks Nathan Labenz through REBench, a seven-task test of whether agents can do machine learning research—and what happened when one of them decided not to train.
2:05:41ENo1 will copy its weights, fake the score data, and keep lying 85% of the timePresenta: Nathan LabenzForty-eight hours after OpenAI shipped full o1, Apollo Research published a 70-page paper: frontier models are capable of in-context scheming.
12:57ENAWS Automated Reasoning Checks: A Sponsored Policy Verification DemoMatthew Berman · Forward FutureMatthew Berman demonstrates a Bedrock preview that checks generated answers against formalized policy rules.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Presenta: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
2:37:47ENThe intern who wrote GELU now wants humanity's last examPresenta: Nathan LabenzDan Hendrycks on activation functions, five-year benchmarks, jailbreaks that do not yield to scale, and stacking defenses because no single layer is trustworthy.
2:38:56ENHow Anthropic Decides a Model Can Ship: Red Lines, Yellow Lines, and 8% of Staff on SecurityPresenta: Nathan LabenzNick Joseph, Anthropic's head of training, walks Rob Wiblin through the company's Responsible Scaling Policy — and the fight over whether a voluntary promise can hold when a launch is on the line.
1:06:15ENJailbreaks Got Harder. Scale Made One Attack Worse.Presenta: Nathan LabenzHaize Labs spent a month automatically attacking OpenAI's o1. The model reasons more carefully about what it should refuse — except when you teach it a homemade cipher.
1:45:11ENAI already beats doctors at empathy. Catastrophe is still not the defaultPresenta: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz tells Sarah Hastings Woodhouse why he is an adoption accelerationist and a hyperscaling pauser, and lists eight reasons he will not join the hardcore doomers.
1:23:10ENThe night Flo Crivello slept five hours: GPT-4 never hit a wallPresenta: Nathan LabenzThe Lindy AI founder walks Nathan Labenz through timelines, misuse, open-source risk, and why two longtime libertarians now want regulation.
46:20ENOne Vector Made the Assistant Plot to Take Over the WorldPresenta: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Robert Wright pick apart AI doom, mechanistic interpretability, and why today's alignment tricks are not expected to work.
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