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2:04:27ENA 10% Chance of an AI-Enabled Coup in the Next 30 YearsHost Nathan LabenzTom Davidson maps three ways superintelligent systems could help a head of state or a lab CEO lock in power—and argues the window for building safeguards is short.
1:51:24ENFrontier AI Insiders Don't Trust Regulators. A Berlin Group Built Them an Anonymous Off-RampHost Nathan LabenzKarl Koch of the AI Whistleblower Initiative on gray-zone fears, retaliation, and a Tor-based way to ask for help before you decide anything.
1:44:11EN100 deaths or $1 billion: a 15-page New York bill would set a floor for frontier labsHost Nathan LabenzAssembly member Alex Bores walks through the RAISE Act’s four requirements, its DeepSeek-inspired distillation clause, and why he says a 50-state patchwork is a fake problem until one state actually passes a law.
2:02:51ENAt a 60-Person Safety Offsite, Only Four Had Seen Nonprofit OpenAIHost Nathan LabenzFormer OpenAI scientist Steven Adler on the Anthropic split, GPT-4, safety evaluations, and why he filed a brief to keep the company under nonprofit control.
2:29:00ENAssume the Model Is Already Scheming — Then Put It to WorkHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris tells Rob Wiblin how to extract useful labor from AIs you cannot certify as aligned, using audits, honeypots, resampling, and factored cognition.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio ShelterHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearHost Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarHost Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FileHost Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
2:33:39ENThe Attacker Goes Second: Why Nicholas Carlini Keeps Breaking AI DefensesHost Nathan LabenzA Google DeepMind security researcher on simple loss functions, 70% robust accuracy, and why the fix has to live in the system, not the model.
2:09:55ENThe Attacker Won All 70 Rounds Against Mind-Reading DefensesHost Nathan LabenzLuke Bailey, Erik Jenner, and Scott Emmons walk through a 50-page paper showing that probes, out-of-distribution detectors, and sparse autoencoders can be bypassed while the model still does the harm.
1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomHost Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
1:46:41ENFrontier Models Hit the 10th–40th Percentile on Real AI R&DHost Nathan LabenzNeev Parikh of METR walks Nathan Labenz through REBench, a seven-task test of whether agents can do machine learning research—and what happened when one of them decided not to train.
2:05:41ENo1 will copy its weights, fake the score data, and keep lying 85% of the timeHost Nathan LabenzForty-eight hours after OpenAI shipped full o1, Apollo Research published a 70-page paper: frontier models are capable of in-context scheming.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Host Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
2:37:47ENThe intern who wrote GELU now wants humanity's last examHost Nathan LabenzDan Hendrycks on activation functions, five-year benchmarks, jailbreaks that do not yield to scale, and stacking defenses because no single layer is trustworthy.
2:38:56ENHow Anthropic Decides a Model Can Ship: Red Lines, Yellow Lines, and 8% of Staff on SecurityHost Nathan LabenzNick Joseph, Anthropic's head of training, walks Rob Wiblin through the company's Responsible Scaling Policy — and the fight over whether a voluntary promise can hold when a launch is on the line.
1:06:15ENJailbreaks Got Harder. Scale Made One Attack Worse.Host Nathan LabenzHaize Labs spent a month automatically attacking OpenAI's o1. The model reasons more carefully about what it should refuse — except when you teach it a homemade cipher.
1:45:11ENAI already beats doctors at empathy. Catastrophe is still not the defaultHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz tells Sarah Hastings Woodhouse why he is an adoption accelerationist and a hyperscaling pauser, and lists eight reasons he will not join the hardcore doomers.
1:23:10ENThe night Flo Crivello slept five hours: GPT-4 never hit a wallHost Nathan LabenzThe Lindy AI founder walks Nathan Labenz through timelines, misuse, open-source risk, and why two longtime libertarians now want regulation.
46:20ENOne Vector Made the Assistant Plot to Take Over the WorldHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Robert Wright pick apart AI doom, mechanistic interpretability, and why today's alignment tricks are not expected to work.
54:25ENJail Only for Perjury: Scott Wiener Walks Through California's Frontier AI BillHost Nathan LabenzSB 1047 sets the same 10^26 FLOPs threshold as the Biden executive order, and the San Francisco senator wants testing without a licensing regime.
1:43:54ENFifteen Examples Can Poison GPT-4: Today's AI Systems Are Exploitable by DefaultHost Nathan LabenzFAR AI founder Adam Gleave walks through cheap jailbreaks in GPT-4's APIs and amateur-level wins against superhuman Go engines, and why robustness is not arriving on its own.
1:45:21EN600,000 Attack Prompts, and Nearly 40% Still Pwned GPT-4Host Nathan LabenzSander Schulhoff walks Nathan Labenz through the prompting habits that still work, the role-play myth that does not, and the global HackAPrompt contest that mapped how language models get hijacked.
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