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1:00:48ENThe Phrase That Alarms a16z’s AI Policy Chief: “It Only Covers a Handful of Companies”Host Nathan LabenzMatt Perault argues that AI rules should target harmful use, not the science of building models, and that “modest” thresholds can lock in an oligopoly.
2:02:27ENShe set out to build mirror life. Then she talked the field into stoppingHost Nathan LabenzUniversity of Minnesota geneticist Kate Adamala tells Nathan Labenz why every known organism shares one chemical alphabet — and why flipping that alphabet would be a branch of synthetic biology better left unexplored.
1:54:08ENWhy Anthropic's first check went to a company building microscopes for neural netsHost Nathan LabenzGoodfire's Dan Balsam and Tom McGrath argue that mechanistic interpretability now has a proto-paradigm, two stubborn gaps, and three products worth shipping today.
1:44:11EN100 deaths or $1 billion: a 15-page New York bill would set a floor for frontier labsHost Nathan LabenzAssembly member Alex Bores walks through the RAISE Act’s four requirements, its DeepSeek-inspired distillation clause, and why he says a 50-state patchwork is a fake problem until one state actually passes a law.
2:02:51ENAt a 60-Person Safety Offsite, Only Four Had Seen Nonprofit OpenAIHost Nathan LabenzFormer OpenAI scientist Steven Adler on the Anthropic split, GPT-4, safety evaluations, and why he filed a brief to keep the company under nonprofit control.
2:29:00ENAssume the Model Is Already Scheming — Then Put It to WorkHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris tells Rob Wiblin how to extract useful labor from AIs you cannot certify as aligned, using audits, honeypots, resampling, and factored cognition.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio ShelterHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearHost Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
3:08:35ENo3 isn't AGI. Zvi Mowshowitz still put p(doom) at 70 percentHost Nathan LabenzOn his ninth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that OpenAI's o3 is a tool-use leap rather than AGI, then explains why he raised the probability of AI catastrophe anyway.
2:27:59ENA 10-to-90% P(doom) Host Gets Asked If His Show Sounds Like ItHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Liron Shapira sit on the same side of the table and test a week of AI news against the question of how likely extinction actually is.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarHost Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FileHost Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
3:01:30ENTechnology Opens the Door. Competition Pushes Us Through.Host Nathan LabenzAllan Dafoe on technological determinism, why alignment is not enough, and how DeepMind is trying to evaluate dangerous capabilities before they arrive.
1:30:57ENAnt's $320 Billion IPO Was Stopped at the Eleventh Hour: Angela Zhang on China's Tech TightropeHost Nathan LabenzA USC law professor walks through the dynamic pyramid that governs Chinese tech, from Didi's listing to DeepSeek's price war, and why she thinks the United States is starting to look more like China.
1:56:38ENo3 took ARC from 20% to 87%. Nathan Labenz sketches early superintelligenceHost Nathan LabenzOn Consistently Candid, the Cognitive Revolution host argues that math and coding will be superhuman by 2026, and that a reasoning core plus specialist “intuitive physics” may already be enough.
2:33:39ENThe Attacker Goes Second: Why Nicholas Carlini Keeps Breaking AI DefensesHost Nathan LabenzA Google DeepMind security researcher on simple loss functions, 70% robust accuracy, and why the fix has to live in the system, not the model.
54:55ENNew Jersey Cut Phone Waits from 40 Minutes to 90 SecondsHost Nathan LabenzGovernor Phil Murphy on the state AI assistant, a Princeton hub, and why he wants the best catcher's mitt in the country when superhuman systems arrive.
3:18:45EN5,000 Samples Topped ARC-AGI. Then Claude Faked Alignment to Keep Its ValuesHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research chief scientist Ryan Greenblatt walks through inference scaling, alignment faking, and what it would mean to strike real deals with AIs.
1:30:28ENA Perfect Score Is 32,000 Units: Only Claude Built a Cooperative SocietyHost Nathan LabenzThe same donor game, run for ten generations, can bank 32,000 resource units if everyone cooperates—and three frontier models miss that ceiling by an order of magnitude.
2:16:17ENA 10B Model Trained Across Three Continents — and an H200 for $1.49 an HourHost Nathan LabenzPrime Intellect's founders lay out a four-step plan to turn spare global GPUs into collectively owned intelligence, and argue that reinforcement learning just made their job easier.
2:09:55ENThe Attacker Won All 70 Rounds Against Mind-Reading DefensesHost Nathan LabenzLuke Bailey, Erik Jenner, and Scott Emmons walk through a 50-page paper showing that probes, out-of-distribution detectors, and sparse autoencoders can be bypassed while the model still does the harm.
2:04:45ENo3 Hit Superhuman on ARC-AGI. It Still Lost at Tic-Tac-ToeHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz walks through OpenAI's o3 scores, deliberative alignment, and why 2024's biggest surprise was beating PhDs while failing to book a calendar invite.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstHost Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
2:11:15ENA 50% Chance of Extinction — and a $50 GPT-4 for EveryoneHost Nathan LabenzEmad Mostaque tells Nathan Labenz why he puts p(doom) at even odds, why a five-watt model changes the energy debate, and how the Intelligent Internet would fund universal basic AI with a Bitcoin-like token.
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