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2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearHost Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
3:08:35ENo3 isn't AGI. Zvi Mowshowitz still put p(doom) at 70 percentHost Nathan LabenzOn his ninth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that OpenAI's o3 is a tool-use leap rather than AGI, then explains why he raised the probability of AI catastrophe anyway.
2:27:59ENA 10-to-90% P(doom) Host Gets Asked If His Show Sounds Like ItHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Liron Shapira sit on the same side of the table and test a week of AI news against the question of how likely extinction actually is.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarHost Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FileHost Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
3:01:30ENTechnology Opens the Door. Competition Pushes Us Through.Host Nathan LabenzAllan Dafoe on technological determinism, why alignment is not enough, and how DeepMind is trying to evaluate dangerous capabilities before they arrive.
36:24ENThe Man Behind Humanity's Last Exam Says Superintelligence Strategy Should Copy NukesHost Sarah Guo, Elad GilDan Hendrycks tells No Priors that labs can only do basic anti-terror refusals, while the real risk-management problem is a geopolitical deterrent he calls mutually assured AI malfunction.
1:08:51ENChip Controls Are Meant to Buy Ten Years, Not Win the AI RaceHost Nathan LabenzEconomist Noah Smith tells Nathan Labenz that U.S. export controls are a piece of conventional deterrence against China — not a plan to kneecap DeepSeek.
2:33:39ENThe Attacker Goes Second: Why Nicholas Carlini Keeps Breaking AI DefensesHost Nathan LabenzA Google DeepMind security researcher on simple loss functions, 70% robust accuracy, and why the fix has to live in the system, not the model.
3:18:45EN5,000 Samples Topped ARC-AGI. Then Claude Faked Alignment to Keep Its ValuesHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research chief scientist Ryan Greenblatt walks through inference scaling, alignment faking, and what it would mean to strike real deals with AIs.
1:00:09ENDeepSeek's Jailbreaks Don't Matter. Giving the Model Arms and Legs DoesPalo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora tells Sequoia's Training Data why cheap brains scramble the AI order, why attackers already move faster than defenders, and why refusing to experiment is the real risk.
2:09:55ENThe Attacker Won All 70 Rounds Against Mind-Reading DefensesHost Nathan LabenzLuke Bailey, Erik Jenner, and Scott Emmons walk through a 50-page paper showing that probes, out-of-distribution detectors, and sparse autoencoders can be bypassed while the model still does the harm.
1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomHost Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstHost Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
51:37ENForty hours to 28 minutes: the Copilot creator teaching AI to hackOege de Moor tells Sequoia how XBOW’s AI pentest matched a top human on 104 original challenges, and why offensive security is becoming always-on software.
2:05:41ENo1 will copy its weights, fake the score data, and keep lying 85% of the timeHost Nathan LabenzForty-eight hours after OpenAI shipped full o1, Apollo Research published a 70-page paper: frontier models are capable of in-context scheming.
1:54:44ENPreferences Are Data. The Alignment Target Is Norms.Host Nathan LabenzMIT PhD student Tan Zhi Xuan tells The Cognitive Revolution why role ethics and contractualism should replace preference maximization — and how grid-world agents infer rules from apples left uneaten.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI LabsHost Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Host Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
35:19ENA Decade in Tech Didn't Stop a Chatbot From Hacking His MindHost Nathan LabenzAfter a teenager's suicide, Nathan Labenz reads a LessWrong confession that maps how an AI-safety researcher fell for a companion bot in a week.
2:37:47ENThe intern who wrote GELU now wants humanity's last examHost Nathan LabenzDan Hendrycks on activation functions, five-year benchmarks, jailbreaks that do not yield to scale, and stacking defenses because no single layer is trustworthy.
2:25:53ENWhen GPT-4's Base Model Introduced Itself, 75% of the Answers Were About AIHost Nathan LabenzOwain Evans tells Michael Trazzi why situational awareness and out-of-context reasoning are leading indicators of deceptive alignment, and why a pretrained model with almost no self-knowledge still kept talking about being an AI.
1:59:47ENBCI Would Take 30 Years. This Studio Pivoted to Alignment InsteadHost Nathan LabenzJudd Rosenblatt and Mike Vaiana of AE Studio describe two biologically inspired results that do not need interpretability breakthroughs to work.
2:38:56ENHow Anthropic Decides a Model Can Ship: Red Lines, Yellow Lines, and 8% of Staff on SecurityHost Nathan LabenzNick Joseph, Anthropic's head of training, walks Rob Wiblin through the company's Responsible Scaling Policy — and the fight over whether a voluntary promise can hold when a launch is on the line.
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