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2:25:42ENThe experts argued through the coffee break — and never agreed whether AI can build AIHost Nathan LabenzOn a marathon Cognitive Revolution live show, a cancer-AI researcher, a former OpenAI board member, and a national-security analyst each hit a different wall in the boom.
1:18:49ENIf AGI Is Cheap Intelligent Labor, Cyber Defense Should Become Continuous ForensicsHost Nathan LabenzAsymmetric Security founder Alexis Carlier argues that assuming AGI means redesigning defense around proactive digital forensics instead of alert triage.
1:55:02ENAn Index Fund on AGI: How MATS Filters the Next 120 AI Safety ResearchersHost Nathan LabenzRyan Kidd, co-executive director of MATS, tells Nathan Labenz why he will not shout a timeline, why every safety technique is also a capabilities technique, and who actually gets hired.
1:18:15ENIf AI Becomes a Being, Steering It Is SlaveryHost Nathan LabenzEmmett Shear and DeepMind's Séb Krier clash over whether alignment means controlling a tool or raising a creature that cares.
1:41:34ENThey Owned the Camera Partition—and Still Couldn't Crash the HelicopterHost Nathan LabenzKathleen Fisher and Byron Cook tell Nathan Labenz how formal methods turn some software bugs into closed cases, from a DARPA helicopter to AWS policies checked a billion times a second.
1:13:24ENRed Teams Still Land 25% of Attacks. Insurance Is the Brake.Host Nathan LabenzAI Underwriting Company co-founders Rune Kvist and Rajiv Dattani tell Nathan Labenz how standards, audits, and insurance could unlock enterprise agents without waiting for a nuclear-style freeze.
2:27:18ENTurn Down AI's Deception Knob, and It Starts Reporting ExperienceHost Nathan LabenzCameron Berg of AE Studio tells Nathan Labenz how suppressing deception features in Llama 3.3 70B pushed self-reports of subjective experience toward 100 percent.
2:49:12ENWhy China's Master Plan for AI Never Mentions AGIHost Nathan LabenzBeijing-based Concordia AI CEO Brian Tse on China's safety rules, chip strategy, and why the two ecosystems look more alike than Washington assumes.
1:28:17ENAdam Gleave's Three Capability Tiers: Attack Agents in 5–7 Years, Fully AI Companies Around Year 14Host Nathan LabenzFAR.AI and the UK AI Security Institute stacked adversarial attacks on frontier safeguard pipelines and found many breakthroughs were engineering failures, not a verdict against defense in depth.
3:14:49ENNothing This Summer Jumped the Curve: Why Zvi Lengthened His AGI TimelinesHost Nathan LabenzOn his tenth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that GPT-5 and IMO gold stayed on trend, while chip policy, energy, and reinforcement learning nudged his p(doom) slightly up.
2:04:27ENA 10% Chance of an AI-Enabled Coup in the Next 30 YearsHost Nathan LabenzTom Davidson maps three ways superintelligent systems could help a head of state or a lab CEO lock in power—and argues the window for building safeguards is short.
1:51:24ENFrontier AI Insiders Don't Trust Regulators. A Berlin Group Built Them an Anonymous Off-RampHost Nathan LabenzKarl Koch of the AI Whistleblower Initiative on gray-zone fears, retaliation, and a Tor-based way to ask for help before you decide anything.
2:14:55ENFrom Character AI to a 1% Warning Shot: Gabriel Weil's Case for Liability as AI GovernanceHost Nathan LabenzA Touro law professor tells Nathan Labenz how negligence, strict liability, and punitive damages could make frontier labs treat public risk as a hit to their own balance sheet.
1:56:16ENSB 813 Would Hand AI Safety Checks to Licensed Private Firms — If Government Can Watch the WatchersHost Nathan LabenzGillian Hadfield and Andrew Freedman want California to set AI safety outcomes, license competing certifiers, and give companies a rebuttable presumption in court if they pass.
2:02:27ENShe set out to build mirror life. Then she talked the field into stoppingHost Nathan LabenzUniversity of Minnesota geneticist Kate Adamala tells Nathan Labenz why every known organism shares one chemical alphabet — and why flipping that alphabet would be a branch of synthetic biology better left unexplored.
1:44:11EN100 deaths or $1 billion: a 15-page New York bill would set a floor for frontier labsHost Nathan LabenzAssembly member Alex Bores walks through the RAISE Act’s four requirements, its DeepSeek-inspired distillation clause, and why he says a 50-state patchwork is a fake problem until one state actually passes a law.
2:02:51ENAt a 60-Person Safety Offsite, Only Four Had Seen Nonprofit OpenAIHost Nathan LabenzFormer OpenAI scientist Steven Adler on the Anthropic split, GPT-4, safety evaluations, and why he filed a brief to keep the company under nonprofit control.
2:29:00ENAssume the Model Is Already Scheming — Then Put It to WorkHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris tells Rob Wiblin how to extract useful labor from AIs you cannot certify as aligned, using audits, honeypots, resampling, and factored cognition.
2:01:42ENHe Put 40 Percent on AI Takeover in Two Years, Then Bought a Bio ShelterHost Nathan LabenzRedwood Research's Josh Clymer walks through a disturbingly grounded story of how a misaligned model could seize a lab, a biosphere, and a civilization before 2027.
2:10:07ENA $30,000 Operation Could Knock a $10 Billion Superintelligence Data Center Offline for a YearHost Nathan LabenzGladstone AI’s Jeremy and Edouard Harris inventory what an American Manhattan Project for superintelligence would actually have to secure — and what it would cost in concrete, supply chains, and civil liberties.
3:08:35ENo3 isn't AGI. Zvi Mowshowitz still put p(doom) at 70 percentHost Nathan LabenzOn his ninth visit to The Cognitive Revolution, Zvi Mowshowitz argues that OpenAI's o3 is a tool-use leap rather than AGI, then explains why he raised the probability of AI catastrophe anyway.
2:27:59ENA 10-to-90% P(doom) Host Gets Asked If His Show Sounds Like ItHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Liron Shapira sit on the same side of the table and test a week of AI news against the question of how likely extinction actually is.
1:28:01ENThe Q* Letter Never Happened: Helen Toner on OpenAI, Adaptation Buffers, and AI at WarHost Nathan LabenzThe former OpenAI director explains why a famous Reuters story was false, why locking down AI will not work, and how military “battle buddy” demos skip the hard questions.
1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FileHost Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
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