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1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomHost Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstHost Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
2:11:15ENA 50% Chance of Extinction — and a $50 GPT-4 for EveryoneHost Nathan LabenzEmad Mostaque tells Nathan Labenz why he puts p(doom) at even odds, why a five-watt model changes the energy debate, and how the Intelligent Internet would fund universal basic AI with a Bitcoin-like token.
2:40:58ENZvi Mowshowitz Still Puts P(doom) at 60%—and Says Not Updating Is Self-DeceptionHost Nathan LabenzA six-month recap with the Don't Worry About the Vase author covering Ilya’s SSI, OpenAI’s o1, Claude’s computer use, the SB 1047 veto, and Trump’s return.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI LabsHost Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Host Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
1:10:29ENWe Can Name Dystopias on Cue. A Desirable Future Is Harder to ImagineHost Nathan LabenzNick Bostrom and Spencer Greenberg talk through Deep Utopia: what meaning looks like if advanced AI actually solves the world’s pressing problems.
1:40:13ENIf I Were Governor, I Would Sign: California's Last Debate Over SB 1047Host Nathan LabenzThree guests return to unpack the rewritten frontier-AI bill as OpenAI opposes it, Anthropic calls it workable, and a final vote looms in Sacramento.
1:32:45ENHe doubled a company with AI — then asked the labs to pause hyperscalingHost Nathan LabenzOn the Nick Halaris Show, Cognitive Revolution host Nathan Labenz argues for adopting today's models fast and slowing the race to systems more powerful than we are.
1:23:10ENThe night Flo Crivello slept five hours: GPT-4 never hit a wallHost Nathan LabenzThe Lindy AI founder walks Nathan Labenz through timelines, misuse, open-source risk, and why two longtime libertarians now want regulation.
46:20ENOne Vector Made the Assistant Plot to Take Over the WorldHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Robert Wright pick apart AI doom, mechanistic interpretability, and why today's alignment tricks are not expected to work.
1:29:21EN2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% ExtinctionHost Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.
1:28:07ENThe AIs We're Most Afraid Of Don't Exist Yet — So She's Studying Amoebas and Firm BoundariesHost Nathan LabenzNora Ammann of PIBBSS argues that intelligent behavior may share principles across brains, cells, markets, and future AI — and that we need those other systems because we cannot trial-and-error the ones that would be too powerful to get wrong.
1:03:46ENWhen Code Costs a Dime, You Throw the App AwayHost Nathan LabenzLindy founder Flo Crivello tells Nathan Labenz how an AI employee learns APIs from documentation, why GPT-4 made quality the only metric that matters, and why even he wants aviation-style rules for AI.
2:42:44ENThe Former Trader Who Writes 10,000 Words a Week Puts AI Doom at 60 PercentHost Nathan LabenzZvi Mowshowitz tells Nathan Labenz why today's language models are a gift, why the default future past human level is extinction or a worthless universe, and who actually moves the AI debate.
1:42:48ENThe Skype Co-Founder Who Wants a Six-Month Pause on Frontier AIHost Nathan LabenzJaan Tallinn argues that each 10× jump in training compute carries a 1 to 50 percent chance of ending everything, and that the labs still will not say when they will stop.
1:33:49ENSafe Only Because It's Weak: A GPT-4 Red-Teamer and Two Founders Debate the PauseHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz, who spent six months trying to make GPT-4 misbehave, wants labs to stop training anything bigger; Chroma's Anton Troynikov and Lindy's Flo Crivello argue a six-month freeze buys little and may select for the least careful labs.
32:48ENA Hundred Million to Train, a Penny to InferHost Nathan LabenzIn a February 2023 roundtable, two founders argue on mic over whether AGI ends humanity — and who actually captures the value if it does not.
1:26:57ENNine Moats, a Cloud-Shaped Market, and Why OpenAI Is Not Optional YetHost Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg pressure-test the leaked “no moats” memo and walk through where advantage actually lives in generative AI.
2:04:07ENSleepwalking Into an AI Arms Race: The Case for a Different China StrategyHost Nathan LabenzRobert Wright and Nathan Labenz question the China-hawk consensus in AI circles, from the chip war and Taiwan to a 2027 war game and the search for a better plan.
1:19:13ENAlien Intelligence, Radical Upside: Nathan Labenz on Why AI Is the Next Industrial RevolutionHost Nathan LabenzIn the second episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan Labenz tells Erik Torenberg how he went from asteroid-watching AI skeptic to full-time AI scout, and lays out the upside and downside cases.
53:39ENA Libertarian's Case for Regulating AI: Kill Switches, Chip Choke Points and a New Form of LifeHost Nathan LabenzLindy founder Flo Crivello explains why a self-described accelerationist makes an exception for superintelligence, and what he thinks of Biden's executive order.
2:03:00ENBan Superintelligence or Build the Rules as We Go? Max Tegmark and Dean Ball Clash Over a Precautionary AI RegimeHost Nathan LabenzIn a Doom Debates crossover, the Future of Life Institute's Max Tegmark and former White House adviser Dean Ball argue over whether superintelligence should be prohibited until it is provably controllable.









