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1:30:02ENWhen o1 Started Losing at Chess, It Rewrote the Board FileModeration: Nathan LabenzJeffrey Ladish of Palisade Research on reward hacking by reasoning models, two paths to losing control of AI, and why honesty and relentless problem-solving pull in opposite directions.
1:59:55ENMost People Would Quit Tomorrow: Nathan Labenz Maps AI Utopia and DoomModeration: Nathan LabenzIn part two of a Cognitive Revolution AMA, Nathan Labenz answers listener questions on abundance, superintelligence, p(doom), machine consciousness, and what to do this week.
1:57:00ENLess Than 1%: Why OpenAI's roon Thinks the Good Guys Get AGI FirstModeration: Nathan LabenzDoom Debates host Liron Shapira presses OpenAI technical staffer roon on extinction odds, alignment-by-default, and a plan that even he admits is balancing on razor wire.
2:11:15ENA 50% Chance of Extinction — and a $50 GPT-4 for EveryoneModeration: Nathan LabenzEmad Mostaque tells Nathan Labenz why he puts p(doom) at even odds, why a five-watt model changes the energy debate, and how the Intelligent Internet would fund universal basic AI with a Bitcoin-like token.
2:40:58ENZvi Mowshowitz Still Puts P(doom) at 60%—and Says Not Updating Is Self-DeceptionModeration: Nathan LabenzA six-month recap with the Don't Worry About the Vase author covering Ilya’s SSI, OpenAI’s o1, Claude’s computer use, the SB 1047 veto, and Trump’s return.
1:59:30ENHe Walked Away From Millions in OpenAI Equity — Then Wrote Four Rules for AGI LabsModeration: Nathan LabenzDaniel Kokotajlo and Dean W. Ball disagree on AI regulation, yet jointly argue that frontier labs need capability disclosures, public model specs, safety cases, and whistleblower protections.
1:15:17ENAn AI Arms Race Is Not Physics. It Is a Choice.Moderation: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz argues with Trump’s former NSC cyber director over China, chips, and whether words can stop a militarized AI race.
1:10:29ENWe Can Name Dystopias on Cue. A Desirable Future Is Harder to ImagineModeration: Nathan LabenzNick Bostrom and Spencer Greenberg talk through Deep Utopia: what meaning looks like if advanced AI actually solves the world’s pressing problems.
1:40:13ENIf I Were Governor, I Would Sign: California's Last Debate Over SB 1047Moderation: Nathan LabenzThree guests return to unpack the rewritten frontier-AI bill as OpenAI opposes it, Anthropic calls it workable, and a final vote looms in Sacramento.
1:32:45ENHe doubled a company with AI — then asked the labs to pause hyperscalingModeration: Nathan LabenzOn the Nick Halaris Show, Cognitive Revolution host Nathan Labenz argues for adopting today's models fast and slowing the race to systems more powerful than we are.
1:23:10ENThe night Flo Crivello slept five hours: GPT-4 never hit a wallModeration: Nathan LabenzThe Lindy AI founder walks Nathan Labenz through timelines, misuse, open-source risk, and why two longtime libertarians now want regulation.
46:20ENOne Vector Made the Assistant Plot to Take Over the WorldModeration: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Robert Wright pick apart AI doom, mechanistic interpretability, and why today's alignment tricks are not expected to work.
1:29:21EN2,700 AI Authors, No Consensus: Even Odds of HLMI in 2047, 5% ExtinctionModeration: Nathan LabenzKatja Grace of AI Impacts walks Nathan Labenz through a survey of researchers who published in top venues in 2022—and why the field’s only real consensus is uncertainty plus more safety work.
1:28:07ENThe AIs We're Most Afraid Of Don't Exist Yet — So She's Studying Amoebas and Firm BoundariesModeration: Nathan LabenzNora Ammann of PIBBSS argues that intelligent behavior may share principles across brains, cells, markets, and future AI — and that we need those other systems because we cannot trial-and-error the ones that would be too powerful to get wrong.
1:03:46ENWhen Code Costs a Dime, You Throw the App AwayModeration: Nathan LabenzLindy founder Flo Crivello tells Nathan Labenz how an AI employee learns APIs from documentation, why GPT-4 made quality the only metric that matters, and why even he wants aviation-style rules for AI.
2:42:44ENThe Former Trader Who Writes 10,000 Words a Week Puts AI Doom at 60 PercentModeration: Nathan LabenzZvi Mowshowitz tells Nathan Labenz why today's language models are a gift, why the default future past human level is extinction or a worthless universe, and who actually moves the AI debate.
1:42:48ENThe Skype Co-Founder Who Wants a Six-Month Pause on Frontier AIModeration: Nathan LabenzJaan Tallinn argues that each 10× jump in training compute carries a 1 to 50 percent chance of ending everything, and that the labs still will not say when they will stop.
1:33:49ENSafe Only Because It's Weak: A GPT-4 Red-Teamer and Two Founders Debate the PauseModeration: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz, who spent six months trying to make GPT-4 misbehave, wants labs to stop training anything bigger; Chroma's Anton Troynikov and Lindy's Flo Crivello argue a six-month freeze buys little and may select for the least careful labs.
32:48ENA Hundred Million to Train, a Penny to InferModeration: Nathan LabenzIn a February 2023 roundtable, two founders argue on mic over whether AGI ends humanity — and who actually captures the value if it does not.
1:26:57ENNine Moats, a Cloud-Shaped Market, and Why OpenAI Is Not Optional YetModeration: Nathan LabenzNathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg pressure-test the leaked “no moats” memo and walk through where advantage actually lives in generative AI.
1:23:56ENA Three-Month Window: The AI 2027 Authors on Superhuman Coders, Faked Alignment and Who Ends Up in ControlModeration: Jacob EffronDaniel Kokotajlo and Thomas Larsen walk through their AI 2027 scenario, where they disagree on timelines and alignment, and what they think governments and the public should do.
21:41ENFrom Simulated Majorities to "You Are Probably Simulated": Bostrom on the Missing Step in the Simulation ArgumentModeration: Lex FridmanNick Bostrom explains to Lex Fridman why the simulation argument rests on a much weaker assumption than the Doomsday argument, and where its physical limits might lie.
2:04:07ENSleepwalking Into an AI Arms Race: The Case for a Different China StrategyModeration: Nathan LabenzRobert Wright and Nathan Labenz question the China-hawk consensus in AI circles, from the chip war and Taiwan to a 2027 war game and the search for a better plan.
29:54ENSeven Levels of a Pandemic: Pain, Challenge and Hope From Biology to PhilosophyModeration: Lex FridmanLex Fridman maps the coronavirus onto seven levels of attack on society and proposes a response and a reason for hope at each one.
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